Value of Exports - Deep Dive

In real dollar terms, Nova Scotia’s total exports (interprovincial and international) have been trending down over the last two decades, though in recent years there has been growth in nominal terms because of price increases.

Nova Scotia’s total exports can be broken down by destination and type. Exports to other provinces account for just over half of the total. Goods usually account for approximately half of the value of exports to other provinces. Export goods account for a larger share of the value of exports to other countries. In 2022, exports of services to other countries increased while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. Overall, exports of goods account for 55% of total exports in 2022.

Though goods account for the majority of the province’s exports, service exports have been a much steadier source of growth since the early 2000s. The value of exports of goods has declined by 13.6 per cent compared to 2000, primarily due to a decline in exports of goods to other countries as well as exports of goods to other provinces. Over that same period, service exports have increased by 56.3 per cent as service exports grew 48.1 per cent interprovincially and 78.5% internationally.

There have been notable shifts in the composition of commodities being exported from Nova Scotia since the early 2000s. This includes significant growth in the province’s two largest merchandise export categories – seafood and tires. After declining through the 2000s, seafood exports have more than doubled since 2010, driven primarily by growing demand for lobster in Asian markets. Tires produced and exported by Michelin plants in Nova Scotia have also increased by 30.2 per cent.

Nova Scotia International Merchandise Export by Select Commodity, 2022

Despite these recent successes, overall export of goods has been hampered by declining natural gas production. As recently as 2008, natural gas from Sable Island was the province’s largest merchandise export, valued at $1.6 billion that year. However, beginning in 2009, dwindling reserves at Sable Island led to a continuous decline in natural gas exports until they reached just $168 million in 2013. Though natural gas saw a brief resurgence in 2014 as production at the Deep Panuke began in earnest, the discovery of lower than expected reserves resulted in a switch to seasonal production in 2015. Overall, natural gas exports have declined by 99.6 per cent since 2008.

Looking forward, overall export growth rates should moderate on back of weaker global economic growth. 

CHANGES TO THE INDICATOR, BASELINE, OR TARGET:

• The goal was assumed to be measuring exports in real dollars (as opposed to current prices)
• Contextual numbers were removed from the goal statement. It was assumed that the target was to grow exports by 50% over the baseline, not to the specific dollar value provided for context in the OneNS report. This was done to keep the goal consistent in case of future historical revisions to the source data.
• Seafood definition is changed to match the goal 15 seafood definition.
• The source data revised based on chained 2017 dollars. The change in indicator results in a new, higher baseline, but the target is still assumed to require 50% growth over the baseline.