Youth Employment - Deep Dive

Movements in the unemployment rate can be influenced by two factors: the relative ease with which people who are looking for work can find it and the number of people who are looking for work. An unemployment rate decrease could be due to an increase in employment, a decrease in the number of people who are looking for work but not employed, or a combination of both.

The youth labour force in Nova Scotia declined steadily from 2012 to 2017. In this period, both the number of youth employed and unemployed youth was in decline. In 2017 there was an increase in the number of unemployed youth which outpaced the rise in the labour force, causing the unemployment rate to rise. However, in both 2018 and 2019, the youth labour force rose while the number of unemployed youth declined, leading to a decline in the youth unemployment rate. In 2020, the youth labour force declined while the number of unemployed youth increased, leading to an increase in the youth unemployment rate. This reversed in 2021 with a rise in the youth labour force and decline in the number of unemployed youth, returning toward the pre-pandemic trend.

It is the relative rates – the labour force participation rate and the employment rate – that help explain the changing youth unemployment rate. Since 2012, the employment rate for youth has risen by 4.8 percentage points while the participation rate has risen by 1.8 percentage points. This has led to a decline in the youth unemployment rate by 4.7 percentage points since 2012.

Breaking out the unemployment rate for 15 to 19-year-olds and 20 to 24-years-olds shows that changes in the youth unemployment rate are skewed toward those who are older. The unemployment rate among 15-19-year-olds in Nova Scotia declined from 20.5 per cent in 2012 to 18.5 per cent in 2021 and for 20-24-year-olds the unemployment rate fell from 16.8 per cent in 2012 to 11.0 per cent in 2021. In Nova Scotia, the unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 19 is above the national rate as of 2021, while the unemployment rate for those aged 20 to 24 is below the national rate.

CHANGES TO THE INDICATOR, BASELINE, OR TARGET:

• Statistics Canada conducted a historical revision to rebase the population in early 2021.  This results in revisions to the baseline indicators for the 2012 reference year.
• The baseline youth unemployment rate was revised down due to historical revisions by Statistics Canada.
• Contextual numbers were removed from the statement of the goal. The target was assumed to be the closure of the gap between the Nova Scotia and Canadian youth unemployment rates, not for the Nova Scotia rate to fall to the Canadian rate of 14% quoted for context in the OneNS report. This was done to keep the goal consistent in case of future historical revisions to the source data.